Corn
Corn futures continue their downward slide, with new-crop December futures declining for the eighth consecutive day. The implementation of increased tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect Tuesday, prompting immediate retaliatory measures from Canada and China. China has announced an additional 15% tariff on U.S. farm imports, set to begin on March 10, potentially allowing time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Canada has imposed a 17% tariff on a range of U.S. products. Mexico has yet to respond, but unshipped U.S. corn sales to the country remain at 7.8 million metric tons (307 million bushels). As the largest buyer of U.S. corn, Mexico’s decision could significantly impact the market. Corn remains deeply oversold, with December futures testing key support at $4.40-$4.45. Funds have likely liquidated over 100,000 contracts from their long positions but are still estimated to hold a net-long position exceeding 270,000 contracts.

Soybeans
Soybeans and soybean products are facing heavy selling pressure this week, with November soybeans and soybean oil extending their decline for the eighth consecutive session. Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 50% complete, according to AgRural, and favorable weather conditions in both Brazil and Argentina continue to support strong production prospects. Additionally, newly enacted tariffs on China and Mexico, along with their retaliatory measures, coupled with falling financial markets, have further pressured grain and soy markets. Unfortunately for futures prices, the market remains heavily focused on global fundamentals, where record production is expected to maintain ample soybean supplies in the near term.

Wheat
All three wheat markets have seen losses this week, with Chicago and Kansas City extending their losing streak to seven days, while Minneapolis May wheat has declined for 10 consecutive sessions. Both Chicago and Minneapolis have fallen to new contract lows. Selling pressure has been driven by tariff concerns, steep losses in corn and soybeans, and weakness in outside financial markets. Additionally, wheat faced further pressure after Australian economic firm ABARES raised its crop estimate from 31.9 million metric tons (mmt) to 34.1 mmt. Funds have increased their net short position in wheat, with Chicago’s estimated at 87,000 contracts early Tuesday. Despite being deeply oversold, wheat markets remain under pressure in the face of a strong downtrend, even as the U.S. dollar weakens over the past two days.
 
Cotton
Cotton futures remain under pressure, mostly from the demand side of the equation. Cotton futures have fallen to  a new 5-year low on a front-month basis, and farmers are expected to reduce acreage as a result. At the annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected U.S. planted cotton acres to be down almost 11% to 10 million acres. Assuming average abandonment of 16% and a trendline yield of 833 lbs/acre, USDA is projecting all-cotton production in the U.S. to be 14.6 million bales. This projection, however, is not based on producer surveys. That report will come at the end of the month. The National Cotton Council annual survey forecast an even smaller crop, with just 9.6 million acres planted, down 14.4% from 2024. Demand for U.S. cotton is weak, with a relatively strong dollar, competition from Brazil, and China likely to impose additional tariffs on U.S. cotton imports all adding to the negative undertone of the market.

Rice
Rice futures set new 31/2-year lows before rebounding a bit last week. Last year’s crop was sizable, and demand is not expected to keep pace, meaning that ending stocks are expected to climb to 47 million cwt. Ample supplies are available around the world, particularly in Asia. India alone has a reported stockpile of 67.6 million metric tons as a result of their months-long export ban. In their first look at the 2025 crop, USDA is projecting planted acres to be at their lowest level in three years, at 2.6 million acres. Mid-south farmers are expected to transition acres into corn and soybeans in an effort to be more profitable.

Livestock and Poultry
USDA held its Annual Outlook Forum last week which provided an in-depth look at livestock and poultry markets. 2024 red meat and poultry production was up nearly 1% to 107.6 billion pounds. Beef production was flat with 2023, while pork and broiler production increased enough to more than offset a decrease in turkey production. For 2025, UDSA is forecasting another 1% increase in production to 108.4 billion pounds, driven by higher pork and broiler sectors. Cattle and turkey production are projected to decline. Feed prices are also projected to decline again in 2025, continuing the trend that began in 2023. On farm hay stocks on Dec. 1, 2024, were projected at 81.5 million tons, an increase of 6% from 2023.