Corn
December corn prices are holding near the 50-day moving average of $4.10. Strong cash markets and steady nearby demand have supported corn futures despite a recent losing streak. The market appears focused on the 100-day moving average, which stands at $4.16. Monday’s crop progress report showed corn harvest at 81% completion, well ahead of the five-year average of 64%. The final crop rating for corn has also settled at 64% good to excellent, marking the highest rating since 2018. Traders are watching for the USDA’s November WASDE report, which may offer insights on corn yields. While there has been some speculation that late-season dryness may have slightly reduced the top end of national corn yields, the October WASDE report surprised the market with a USDA yield increase to 183.6 bushels per acre — a potential record.

Soybean
November soybean prices continue to decline as the contract nears expiration on Nov. 14, currently trading around $9.70 — well below the 50-day moving average of $10.07. Traders are now shifting their focus to the January contract, though prices there have also weakened, with January soybeans breaking the previous October low of $9.80. The market now sits within ten cents of the contract low of $9.73, an evident target for bearish positions. Resistance to any rally remains at $10.00, with additional resistance at $10.13. Given current signals, the outlook for soybeans appears to stay bearish, with indications continuing to point toward a record U.S. crop.

Wheat
The U.S. winter wheat crop is in worse condition than expected, with drought conditions intensifying since mid-year and taking a toll on crop quality. However, weather forecasts indicate ample rainfall across the central U.S. in the coming days, which could help improve wheat conditions. As of Sunday, the USDA rated 38% of the nation’s winter wheat crop as good to excellent, falling 9% below analyst expectations. This rating also falls below the five-year average of 44% good to excellent for this week and is the second-lowest for this period in 39 years of records. The poor rating led to gains across all three wheat classes, bouncing back from recent losses.

Rice
November rice futures have now closed below previous support at $15, signaling that further losses could be possible. Support begins at $14.881/2 with additional support at $14.70. The market has been trading in a mostly sideways range for the past several weeks, but it appears to be turning lower. Harvest 2024 is a wrap, and indications are that yields were strong with no major crop problems. Asian prices are under pressure from the large supplies in India that are now available after the government there relaxed export restrictions. Weekly exports have been better than expected, but low river levels mean things are still moving more slowly than is ideal.

Cotton
Cotton harvest is now in full swing, with 52% of the U.S. crop harvested. In Arkansas, farmers have now picked 85% of the cotton and harvest will begin winding down soon. December futures have been trending lower for more than a month as harvest pressure weighs on the market. Futures are now testing support at 70 cents and have downtrending overhead resistance near 72 cents. A close above the trendline would suggest a possible retest of resistance at 74.50 cents. Last week’s exports of 169,700 bales was up 57% from the previous four-week average. The top buyers were Vietnam and Pakistan, but China was a buyer.

Cattle
Live cattle futures prices remain strong, with December moving to a new 16-week high three days in a row. February cattle are trading at 12-week highs. However, the market is overbought and could be due a correction. Both the December and February contracts charted a bearish outside day on Tuesday, suggesting additional downside is possible. The market fundamentals support the recent strength, with higher wholesale beef prices and packer operating margins adding to the overall bullish tone of the market. The October Cattle on Feed report was mostly neutral for prices, with the October inventory pegged at 100% of the year-ago total. September placements were 98.1% of the previous year, which was above the average trade estimate.

Hogs
Hog futures continue to move higher, with December gapping to new contract highs on Tuesday after negating a bearish reversal charted late last week. Counter to a typical decline in the fall, cash hog prices are strong, and the composite pork cutout value is at six-week highs, supporting packer margins.