Rice
Warm, dry conditions have allowed farmers in the south to harvest the crop in a hurry. Despite a very late start to the crop, farmers nationwide are 81% harvested-right on pace with the 5-year average. In Arkansas, 90% of the crop is in the bins, ahead of the 5-year average of 86%. The October production report increased the all-rice yield by 13 lbs/acre to 7,599 lbs/acre. The 22/23 export forecast was lowered to 75 million cwt, which would be the lowest all-rice export total since 1991-92. Ending stocks were raised 2.3 million cwt to 33.2 million, but that is still down 16% from the prior year. Futures continue to move lower as harvest pressure takes its toll on the market. Historic strength in the dollar is impacting demand. Production problems throughout Asia could provide some support, as rice is a staple food for many around the world. Basis levels are being impacted by transportation woes, as barges sit idle on the Mississippi river due to low water levels as the drought continues. November futures have fallen through support at $16.80, suggesting further losses are possible.

Cotton
December cotton has been under pressure, charting a bearish outside day last week. The weakness has been limited as the market has continued to close above support at the July low of 82.54 cents. The crop is 29% harvested nation-wide. The production estimate in the October report was reduced slightly to 13.8 million bales. The export forecast was lowered by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales as world trade is expected to continue at a sluggish pace. That reduction directly carried over into the carryout estimate, which were up 100,000 bales. The season-average price for upland cotton is now forecasted to be 90 cents per pound, down 6 cents from the previous report. December futures have managed to hold above support at the July low of 82.94 cents, but are finding resistance at 90 cents.

Soybeans
The October reports saw USDA lower the soybean production forecast by 65 million bushels thanks to a 0.7. bu/acre cut to the nationwide yield estimate, which is now petted at 49.8 bushels per acre. Total production is now forecast to come in at 4.3 billion bushels. Lower production was, however, partially offset by higher beginning stocks, and total supplies were reduced by 31 million bushels. Exports were reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion bushels. Increased domestic crush partially offset the lower exports, though, and ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels. The season-average on farm price is forecast at $14/bushel, down 35 cents from last month’s report. Technically, November futures have found support at $13.50, and are building resistance at the previous support level of $14.

Corn
The October reports reduced the corn production forecast by 49 million bushels to 13.895 billion bushels. That is the result of a reduction in the average yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Total corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks were partially offset by higher imports. The net result of the report was that supply fell more than use, and projected ending stocks were cut 47 million bushels. The season-average on farm price received by producers was raised 5 cents to $6.80/bushel. 

Livestock and Poultry
In the October supply/demand report, USDA raised the forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production. Lower turkey production partially offset increases in the production estimates for beef, pork and broilers. Beef forecasts were raised on higher expected slaughter and higher expected carcass weights. Pork was raised on higher slaughter in the third quarter. Broiler production was raised on current slaughter totals and higher eggs set and chicks placed.

The projected average price for steers in 2022 was raised to $143.15/cwt, while the price for barrows and gilts was lowered to $71.08/cwt. Broilers were also lowered to $1.41/lb.

Dairy
Milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were raised from the previous report. The cow inventory was raised reflecting a more rapid pace of expansion in late 2022 and into the first half of 2023. Output-per-cow was also raised for the same period.

Both Class III and Class IV prices were raised, reflecting the higher butter and cheese prices respectively. For 2023, price forecasts for butter and cheese were raised while the nonfat dry milk price was lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.60 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is raised to $22.90 per cwt.