Cattle
The April Cattle on Feed report was bearish for prices and resulted in the market gapping sharply lower. Losses from which the market has not begun to recover. Released on Friday, April 22, the report showed March feedlot placements of 99.6% of the year ago total. Pre-report estimated ranged from 87%-96% with an average of only 92.2%. The April 1 feedlot inventory was pegged at 101.7% of last year, while trade estimates averaged 100.4%. This indicates that supplies of market-ready cattle will be more than adequate into fall. However, supplies of feeder cattle outside of feedlots is down sharply from last year, indicating placements will be down in the near-term. Key support is $130.98 for the June contract and $140 for October.

Hogs
Hog futures continue to trend lower. Technically, June futures appear to have topped on March 31, charting a huge bearish reversal after setting a new contract high of $127.32 ½. The market has violated long-term uptrending support and have been locked in a steep downtrend for the past couple of weeks. The market appears to have found some support below $102 this week, though. The market has become oversold, and demand should improve soon as spring grilling season begins in earnest, providing some underlying support for prices.

Cotton
After a few sequential days of lower closes, the bulls are back in charge of cotton futures. Both old and new crop contracts have set a new high 5-days in a row, and a new 11-year high on a front month basis. The continued drought in Texas has traders worried about the yield potential for the crop there. Export sales have improved this week, with USDA reporting net sales of 232,000 bales of the current crop, including 100,000 bales to China. New crop net sales totaled 93,000 bales, and shipments were robust at 426,000 bales. Arkansas cotton acres are expected climb 8% this year, to 520,000 acres, while the U.S. crop is pegged at 12.234 million acres, up 9% from a year ago. Production could be impacted by drought in the Southwest. Nationwide, cotton farmers have seeded 16% of the crop, which is on pace with the 5-year average of 15%. Arkansas farmers, who have planted 13% of the crop, are also slightly ahead of the average pace of 10%.

Corn
Corn futures continue to trend higher, but that trend looks to be running out of steam. The market is focused on supply right now. The war rages on in Ukraine, and farmers there are running out of time to plant corn. In the U.S., the weather hasn’t cooperated, resulting in farmers at home running behind schedule as well. As of May 1, farmers in the U.S. had planted 14% of the crop, compared with a 5-year average of 33%. Nationwide, the crop is only expected to be down 4% from last year, with total acres pegged at 89.49 million, but if wet weather continues, it could be even smaller, as that is based upon a survey done in early March. Weekly export sales of 59.8 million bushels were within trade expectations, and shipments of 75 million bushels was supportive.

Rice
Rice futures have moved to new contract highs again after bearish chart signals were ignored and the bulls came back into the market. Rice acres in the state are currently pegged at 1.191 million, of which 1.080 million are expected to be long grain, with 110,000 acres of medium grain. That is down 2% from last year’s crop. The U.S. crop is expected to be 3% smaller. However, slow planting progress could result in an even smaller crop than anticipated. As of May 1, Arkansas farmers had only seeded 40% of the crop, compared with 60% a year ago and a 5-year average of 59%. The U.S. total is better but still behind, with 45% planted compared with a 5-year average of 56% With the final planting date for crop insurance coverage coming quickly, farmers will be faced with tough decisions in the next couple of weeks. Weekly export sales were extremely disappointing at just 10,200 metric tons, and shipments of 34,100 metric tons, down 46% from the previous 4-week average.

Soybeans
November beans continue to trend higher but are capped by resistance at the contract high of $15.55. 2022 is projected to be a record-setter for soybean production. The U.S. crop is pegged at almost 91 million acres, up 4% from last year. In Arkansas, farmers are expected to seed 3.25 million acres to soybeans. That’s 7% more acres than in 2021. Planting delays in corn are bearish for soybeans, as the current weather makes it likely that the size of the soybean crop will be even larger than current projections.