Livestock and Poultry
In the April Supply/Demand report, USDA lowered the forecast for total red meat and poultry production. Reduced pork and poultry production is expected to offset higher beef production. The beef production forecast was raised from the previous month as higher expected first quarter placements support larger fed cattle slaughter and more non-fed cattle slaughter is expected. The beef import estimate was increased from last month based on recent trade data. Fed cattle prices were unchanged from last month. 

Pork production was lowered based on the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released March 30, which estimated the March 1 inventory and indicated producer’s intentions to reduce farrowings through May. The pork import estimate was increased from last month while exports were estimated to be down on tight supplies and strong domestic prices. Hog prices were raised on tighter supplies and continued strength in demand. 

Broiler production was reduced on lower expected slaughter in the first quarter. No changes were made to production in the outlying quarters. Turkey meat production was lowered as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries to date are resulting in tighter supplies of turkeys. Broiler prices were raised on current prices and continued strength in demand. Turkey and egg price forecasts were raised on current prices and expected tighter supplies. 

Dairy
The milk production forecast for 2022 was raised on higher dairy cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast was lowered on lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products, while exports were raised on stronger cheese and butter shipments. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast was raised as imports of milk proteins are projected to more than offset weaker projected cheese imports. Exports are raised on higher projected shipments for whey and skim milk powder.

Price forecasts for cheese and butter were raised from the previous month on tighter stocks and firm demand. Non-fat dry milk prices were raised fractionally while whey prices were lowered, as U.S. prices are expected to become competitive with international prices. With the higher cheese price more than offsetting a lower whey price, the Class III price was raised. The Class IV price was raised on higher butter and nonfat dry milk. The 2022 all milk price forecast is increased to $25.80 per cwt.

Cotton
Arkansas cotton acres are expected climb 8% this year, to 520,000 acres, while the U.S. crop is pegged at 12.234 million acres, up 9% from a year ago. Production could be impacted by drought in the Southwest. Texas farmers have reported their intentions to plant 6.8 million acres of cotton, but drought could result in higher-than-average abandonment. The April supply and demand report didn’t have any changes on the balance sheet, but the average on-farm price estimate for upland cotton was raised to a record setting 91-cents. Cotton futures were under pressure early this week due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger dollar. May futures have resistance at $1.46/pound and support at $131.58. December futures have resistance at the high of $1.24.

Corn
Farmers have indicated their intention to plant 750,000 acres of corn in Arkansas, down 100,000 acres, or 18%, from 2021. Nationwide, the crop is only expected to be down 4% from last year, with total acres pegged at 89.49 million. Planting progress is off to a slow start as weather conditions have been less than favorable in much of the country, but it’s providing support to the market. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 49.9 million bushels. 

Rice
Rice acres in the state are currently pegged at 1.191 million, of which 1.080 million are expected to be long grain, with 110,000 acres of medium grain. That is down 2% from last year’s crop. The U.S. crop is expected to be 3% smaller. However, slow planting progress could result in an even smaller crop than anticipated. As of April 10, Arkansas farmers had only seeded 9% of the crop, compared with 24% a year ago and a 5-year average of 34%. With the final planting date for crop insurance coverage coming quickly and continued wet weather, the crop will likely be significantly smaller than the report indicated. Nationwide, 22% of the crop is in the ground, compared with a 4-year average of 36%. On Tuesday of this week, rice futures posted huge key reversal after moving to new contract highs. While the charts do look bearish, there has been little follow-through selling at this point. July needs to close above that high of $17.31 ½ to negate the bearish technical signal, while September needs to close above $17. 

Soybeans
The year 2022 is projected to be a record-setter for soybean production. The U.S. crop is pegged at almost 91 million acres, up 4% from last year. In Arkansas, farmers are expected to seed 3.25 million acres to soybeans. That’s 7% more acres than in 2021. In the April supply/demand report, exports were raised 25 million bushels to 2.12 billion, and ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 260 million. The season-average price forecast was unchanged at $13.25. Weekly exports were near the high end of expectations at 62.5 million bushels. Technically, November beans continue to trend higher, but are capped by resistance at the contract high of $15.55.